27-01-2016

Fewer expecting house price gains but see interest rates staying low

1. News
2. 2016
3. January

Key highlights

•	Fewer people are expecting house price gains, with a net 44% of respondents expecting house prices will increase.

•	The majority of respondents expect interest rates to remain unchanged over the next 12 months.

•	Sentiment about buying a house varies from region to region. Nationwide a net 5% see now as a bad time to buy.

		Report prepared by: Kim Mundy, ASB Economist Phone: +64 9 301 5661 Email: kim.mundy@asb.co.nz

Expectations of house price gains continued to ease, but many saw interest rates staying low, in the latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey. Falling house price expectations were most evident in Auckland, with net price gain expectations falling to 30% from 50% last quarter. Since investor activity in Auckland has begun to be targeted by a suite of Government tax and RBNZ lending measures, Auckland housing activity and price growth has moderated. This is likely weighing on the survey results.

There was a noticeable increase in respondents expecting no change in interest rates in the latest survey. 2015’s OCR cuts led to, in some instances, record low interest rates. Respondents’ recent view change may simply be because they question whether interest rates can go any lower.
 

Tags: asb housing confidence survey